Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Whatever happened to La Niña?

At the start of this season word was we were going to have another good one. Talk of "La Niña" was widespread and a snowstorm at the end of October gave us all false hope that we were off to a great start. Some areas of New England received over a foot of snow and mountains like Killington and Sunday River were even able to open, albeit briefly. Typically in seasons past the majority of the larger mountains would be largely open by Thanksgiving week or shortly into December. However, here we are on December 28th a only a handful are operating over 50%. At least two days out of every week this month have been over 40 degrees, with some days reaching as high as 60. This is not to mention the four plus inches of precipitation which has not come in the white fluffy form we would love to see right now.

So what is La Niña and do we still have any hope of this season turning around? According to NOAA weather service La Niña is defined as cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean that impact global weather patterns. This means equal chances for above, near, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.

While the 10-day weather forecast does predict a "chance of snow" and "few snow showers" for some resort areas, we aren't looking at much accumulation. On the upside we can hope that the temperatures will remain low enough for continued snow making, without which we would not be able to snowboard at all, bare spots and thin strips of snow reminiscent of end-of-season leftovers are standard currently. The mountains have been doing an impressive job on this front despite the uncooperative weather and all we can really do is maintain hope that the sky will soon open up and deliver a few feet of fresh so we can all get our fix.

Far too much grass exposed for my liking!

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